| Baseball fans love to watch their favorite players | | | | playoffs only 4 times. This means that in 14 |
| hit the ball out of the park. In baseball, hitting a | | | | seasons, only 4 times did we see both home run |
| home run is one of the most prestigious and | | | | champions appear in the playoffs. Between 1998 |
| respected accomplishments a player can achieve. | | | | and 2003, NOT ONE home run champion, from |
| In fact, home run hitters are the most respected | | | | either league, made the playoffs. (That's six |
| players in the game. In the 1998 season, sports | | | | seasons in a row!) |
| media focused heavily around the home run | | | | Clearly, individual home runs do not reflect a |
| chase. Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey | | | | player's contribution. Since baseball is a team |
| Jr., and Greg Vaughn were all chasing Roger | | | | game, what about team home runs? Since the |
| Maris's homerun record. McGwire broke the | | | | year 2000, only one team achieved the league |
| record with 70, while Sosa hit 66. The other two | | | | home run crown and the World Series trophy |
| players hit 50 or more home runs. These epic | | | | (Philadelphia Phillies in 2008). Out of the 19 team |
| achievements often overshadow arguably more | | | | home run leaders since 2000 (there was a tie in |
| important triumphs, such as the Yankees winning | | | | 2004 for AL) only 4 went onto the playoffs. This |
| a record 125 games and sweeping the San Diego | | | | shows that even power teams don't go all the |
| Padres to win the World Series. After all, baseball | | | | way. |
| is about winning games, not hitting home runs. | | | | We can agree that baseball is about team |
| Historical data indicates that home run record | | | | performance, not individual performance. We |
| holders are not all that successful in reaching the | | | | often lose sight of this and focus on individual |
| objective of the game. | | | | statistics. Individuals make up the team but it is |
| When watching sports, we often lose sight of | | | | the ability for the team to work together that |
| what's really important. In the case of baseball, | | | | reflects a team's success, not individual |
| the media and sports followers often analyze a | | | | achievements. Being able to make sacrifice bunts, |
| player's success by his individual statistics, without | | | | stealing bases, pinch running, and covering the field |
| taking into consideration the players value to the | | | | are very undervalued compared to the light |
| team. It's definitely a great plus to have power | | | | placed on home run hitters. There are very few |
| hitters on your team to support your pitcher and | | | | home run hitters that have a variety of skills |
| score runs. After all, the object of the game is to | | | | offensively and defensively. An example of team |
| win games and you do that by scoring runs. | | | | chemistry is reflected by the run support a |
| However, we fail to recognize a player's success | | | | pitcher gets. |
| by analyzing the wrong metrics. A hitters | | | | Pitcher A: 5.00 ERA |
| contribution to a team is more justified by looking | | | | Pitcher B: 2.20 ERA |
| at his runs, rbi's, and average with RISP, as | | | | Most people will conclude that Pitcher B is better |
| opposed to homeruns. However, the best hitters | | | | than Pitcher A because of the drastic differences |
| are often recognized by their home run numbers. | | | | in ERA. However, is this really reflective of a |
| You don't win a game or score runs just by | | | | pitcher's ability? Some argue that win-loss |
| hitting the ball over the fence, but also by getting | | | | percentage is important, but that doesn't show |
| on base, scoring runs, and driving your | | | | how the rest of the team works with the pitcher. |
| teammates home. Home runs achieve that, but | | | | I believe that a pitcher's contribution to the team |
| not all the time. | | | | should be measured by the difference between |
| In other words, baseball statistics do not reflect a | | | | average run support and ERA (the higher the |
| player's value directly. Who would you rather have | | | | difference, the better). If Pitcher A gets an |
| at the plate with a runner in scoring position? | | | | average of 8 runs per game of run support, while |
| Player A: A .280 hitter with no home runs | | | | Pitcher B gets an average of 3 runs, then Pitcher |
| Player B: A .240 hitter with 50 home runs | | | | A should be considered better. This metric shows |
| Most people will say player B because of the | | | | that the team is able to work better with Pitcher |
| drastic differences in home run totals. Is this really | | | | A on the mound, thus reflecting the notion that |
| enough information? However, what if you were | | | | baseball team performance is dependent upon |
| given that Player A had a RISP average of .450 | | | | individual interactions. After all, the game is about |
| and Player B had a RISP of .250? A statistician will | | | | scoring runs to win the game. A pitcher may give |
| argue that the important metric here is RISP, not | | | | up more runs, on average, than another, but still |
| batting average or home runs. Managers make | | | | have more value to the team because of a |
| decisions based on these facts, but the public | | | | stronger offense. You cannot define a player's |
| does not recognize this. In this case, Player B is | | | | value to the team just by one component; you |
| going to get a better reception by the fans than | | | | have to look at a conglomeration of elements. |
| Player A, despite the fact that Player A is clearly | | | | Assessing the Most Valuable Player award, |
| a better fit. In baseball, a player's contribution to | | | | however, should take into consideration a player's |
| the team depends highly upon his timing and the | | | | contribution to the team. Since MVP is done by |
| ability to be clutch. If I were a manager, I would | | | | human voting, not just formulas or number |
| rather have a player with lower overall avg/hr/rbi | | | | crunching, we can evaluate a player's |
| numbers but a higher average with the bases | | | | performance by more than just individual |
| loaded compared to an exceptional player. The | | | | statistics. Although only 2 baseball MVP winners |
| probability is higher that the average player will | | | | have been to the World Series, 2003 was the |
| bring the runners home. Even though the | | | | ONLY year an MVP player did not reach the |
| probability is higher that the exceptional player will | | | | playoffs. MVP status is still highly controversial, but |
| hit a home run, there are many other possible | | | | is at least somewhat accurate. Baseball officials |
| ways for a player to bring runners home. If the | | | | should assess a player's contribution to his team |
| game were tied, all you need is one base hit to | | | | by analyzing statistics that reflect his ability to |
| take the lead, especially if it were the bottom of | | | | perform in clutch situations (ex. RISP avg). |
| the 9th inning. The player that should take the | | | | These examples show that in baseball, or any |
| plate in the bottom of the 9th inning situation | | | | sport for that matter, statistics are just nominal |
| should be one that has a higher probability of | | | | numbers. In most cases, they don't provide an |
| making a contribution. If all you do is hit home | | | | analysis to a player's contribution to a team. A |
| runs, you are going to get the individual | | | | hitter may have 40 home runs, but it could be |
| performance recognition, but not the World Series | | | | the case that they only hit home runs when the |
| ring. In fact, there are many cases in which | | | | team already has a large lead. The same hitter |
| power hitters hit well when their team already has | | | | may have a very poor batting average with RISP |
| a drastic lead, and hit extremely poorly in a tie or | | | | in pressure situations. Sports analysts and even |
| close game. | | | | fans, should look beyond these numbers and |
| After collecting data since the 1995 season | | | | understand that certain numbers are only individual |
| (post-strike), I found some trends to support my | | | | performance metrics. Achieving the individual |
| analysis. Since 1995, only 2 home run leaders | | | | home run title is a simple calculation. We often |
| from either the AL or NL went onto the World | | | | make the mistake of following individual |
| Series (2004 and 2008). This shows that hitting a | | | | achievements, not team performance (except |
| lot of home runs for your team doesn't mean | | | | fantasy baseball where success is based on |
| you are going to win. But going to the World | | | | individuals, not teams). The most important |
| Series is tough, what about the playoffs? Since | | | | valuations that reflect a player's significance are |
| 1995, both AL and NL home run kings made the | | | | often overlooked and unrecognized. |