| In 2007, Jeremy Hermida put up a .296/.369/.501 | | | | amounted to a drastically improved BB%, up to |
| slash line at the tender age of 23. In 484 plate | | | | 13.4%. The strikeouts are still high, at 24.6%, but |
| appearances, he posted a .372 wOBA which was | | | | you can't argue with the walk rate and |
| good for 2.7 wins above replacement. This season | | | | subsequent .102 Isolated Patience. |
| seemed like it was the beginning of a bright future | | | | But what of his plate discipline numbers? Previous |
| projected by the likes Baseball America and | | | | work done by Dave Golebiewski of Rotographs |
| Baseball Prospectus during Hermida's minor league | | | | showed Hermida was swinging at more pitches |
| career. However, a look at his BABIP compared | | | | outside the strike zone and less of them inside |
| to a crude projection using his LD% showed a | | | | the strike zone. A look at the numbers this year |
| value that might have suggested a bit of luck. | | | | shows some slight differences. He's swung at |
| Sure enough, regression set in a big way the | | | | "only" 24.2% of pitches outside the strike zone, |
| following year, to the tune of a .249/.323/.406 line | | | | while his swing rate inside the strike zone has |
| and a .321 wOBA. His K% stayed as high as ever | | | | remained at around 60%. His overall contact rate |
| while his walk rate dropped another 1%. | | | | is up 1.5%, and in particular his outside zone |
| All in all, it had appeared Hermida had regressed | | | | contact rate is up 2%. Combine this with him |
| as far as possible from his initially grand | | | | seeing 4% less pitches in the strike zone, and you |
| projections. So who really is the true Jeremy | | | | can see how a decrease in pitches in the zone |
| Hermida? | | | | and a slight but significant decrease in pitches |
| His minor league numbers were good, but not | | | | swung at outside the zone has drastically |
| great, with a career slash line of .284/.398/.436. A | | | | improved his walk rate. |
| minor league career ISO of .152 is nothing to be | | | | His power numbers are way down, but he seems |
| proud of, even if you were finishing your minor | | | | to be hitting it as hard as ever, as evidenced by a |
| league run at age 21. So far, Hermida has shown | | | | more career-typical 21.8% LD%. However, he has |
| no sign of increasing his power, culminating in this | | | | a HR/FB ratio of 10.6%, a number perhaps |
| season's so-far horrific .126. That's not a power | | | | partially attributed to the fact that he isn't seeing |
| number you expect or want to see in a corner | | | | many pitches to hit; only 45.2% of pitches to |
| outfielder, especially one with the glove that | | | | Hermida have been in the strike zone. So perhaps |
| Hermida carries (a career UZR of -23.8 in 3000 | | | | some of his power problem isn't his fault directly, |
| innings in right field). | | | | but could be assisted if he stopped swinging at so |
| Still, the minor league performance should have | | | | many bad pitches. |
| projected some sort of patience, capability to | | | | In any case, I don't expect either trend of |
| take walks. But before this season he had not hit | | | | significantly higher OBP and significantly lower SLG |
| above 10% BB% in any of his three seasons. | | | | to continue, and neither do the various projection |
| Combine that with increasing K% and you get a | | | | systems. zIPS has Hermida with a finishing line of |
| player who makes far too many outs, struggles | | | | .266/.357/.426, good for a .349 wOBA. This would |
| to make contact, and already was known as | | | | certainly be an improvement over his previous |
| someone who hadn't developed major league | | | | year, but would be more in line with numbers of a |
| power. Yet his LD% have remained fairly | | | | guy who just doesn't do enough of either avoiding |
| constant through his first three seasons at 20%. | | | | outs and making more use of his outs (ie. on-base |
| His dip last year to 17.7% could have made for | | | | or slugging capabilities) to warrant a lot of playing |
| some of the batting average fall, but the lack of | | | | time. When you figure in his defensive liabilities, it |
| power was troubling for a player who wasn't | | | | points to a player who shouldn't be taking up the |
| really missing out in the luck department all that | | | | sort of playing time the Marlins are expecting of |
| much. | | | | him right now. He is just 25 years old, so he may |
| As an update, what have we seen so far this | | | | one day be able to match the grandiose |
| year? In 240 plate appearances, Hermida has | | | | aspirations of his minor league years. The Marlins |
| racked up a .261/.363/.386 line with numbers good | | | | are likely to see another season of him if he isn't |
| for a .338 wOBA. That's close to league average, | | | | traded, after which the Fish are looking to hand a |
| carried by the first major observation to be had | | | | corner outfield spot to the power-packed |
| in that slash line: Hermida has been drawing many | | | | youngster Mike Stanton. But the Fish will be |
| a walk early in the year. After drawing only 48 | | | | shopping Hermida and his bounty of talent and are |
| walks all of last year (559 PA), he's drawn 32 in | | | | willing to allow someone else to figure him out, |
| less than half the plate appearances. This has | | | | provided the right return. |