| In this weeks strategy article we wanted to take | | | | and points allowed to the TE. Essentially, as a |
| a look at the tight end position. For some time I | | | | defense increases its utilization of the blitz we can |
| have been thinking that if you do not have an | | | | expect the opposing fantasy tight end to see an |
| elite tight end this could be a position to stream | | | | increase in production. |
| weekly, similar to defenses and kickers. While this | | | | It makes sense if you think about it. |
| article will not answer that specific question, it will | | | | Quarterbacks under heavy pressure are forced |
| serve as a step in that direction. The goal here is | | | | to quickly dump the ball off. In most cases the |
| to explore the concept that tight ends going | | | | quick read is to a running back out of the |
| against defenses that extensively utilize the blitz | | | | backfield or to the TE over the middle. The data |
| are caught up in max-protect blocking schemes | | | | seems to suggest that offensive coordinators |
| and see less pass catching opportunities than they | | | | prefer to leak the TE as a counter to the blitz |
| do against more conservative defenses. | | | | rather than employ a max protect blocking |
| If one plots fantasy points allowed to the tight | | | | scheme. |
| end against sacks where each data point | | | | Lets look at a few specific examples. Zach Miller is |
| represents an NFL defense and the x-axis is the | | | | having a fairly decent year for the Oakland |
| number of sacks that defense has thus far in the | | | | Raiders and his biggest games of the season |
| 2009 season you will see a direct correlation | | | | have come against the Eagles and the Chargers, |
| between sacks allowed and points allowed. For this | | | | two teams which utilize the blitz extensively. |
| analysis sacks are used as a proxy for blitz | | | | Likewise, Antonio Gates had his biggest game of |
| frequency. | | | | the year against the blitz happy Steelers. |
| The y-axis is the average number of FFL points | | | | In summary, it appears that for fantasy football |
| the defense has yielded to opposing tight ends. | | | | purposes tight ends seem to perform best |
| Taken together each data point represents the | | | | against defenses that employ the blitz. While we |
| relationship between how often a defense blitzes | | | | would like to do further analysis before |
| and how many point they allow to the tight end | | | | recommending a streaming TEs strategy it |
| position. Contrary to our assumption above, this | | | | appears it may make sense if you do not have |
| data confirms that there is in fact a linear | | | | an elite TE on your team. |
| relationship between defenses that blitz heavily | | | | |