| The New York Yankees name and brand is | | | | Instead of picking and choosing run lines, let's |
| known everywhere. Go any place in the world | | | | convert all 82 contests as good to oversized |
| either walking or driving and you are bound to see | | | | chalk into run lines. |
| a Yankees hat or t-shirt. When it comes to | | | | The first bit of news is somewhat depressing, as |
| betting, the same is true, everyone knows the | | | | 10 of the 58 wins were one run victories, giving |
| Bronx Bombers and their storied history and | | | | us 10 more losses for wagering purposes and |
| whether you love them or loathe them, | | | | lowering our winning percentage to 58.5 percent, |
| everybody has an opinion on the Yankees and | | | | wagering on the run line. |
| those setting the numbers on them are well | | | | However, many of our regular wins came with |
| aware of this fact. | | | | increased profits on the run line. Of our 48 W's |
| Needless to say, it does not make a lot sense to | | | | that covered the spread (-1.5), 26 of them were |
| bet against New York, as for well over a decade | | | | in the range of -155 to -190 and instead of having |
| they have been the best team in baseball year in | | | | a +100 profit on triumphs, the profits were +105 |
| year out. | | | | or greater. Those 26 wins provided rewards of |
| The Yankees success has led to frequently | | | | +30.55 units. |
| inflated money lines by odds makers, as they | | | | Now for the math lesson on ML vs. RL. |
| know the wagering public may root for an | | | | Our 58-24 ML record added up this way. |
| underdog from time to time, but when it comes | | | | 58 units - 50.2 units = +7.8 units |
| down to placing money on wagers, favorites will | | | | But take our poorer spread record (48-34) and |
| get the call the vast majority of the time. | | | | do the math. |
| With New York having the best talent money can | | | | New York had 26 wins that generated +30.55 to |
| buy or trade for, the Yankees are often a -200 | | | | go along with the other 22 wins that added up |
| or more ML favorites and each loss suffered in | | | | +22 more units. |
| this realm means at least two other victories are | | | | Our original 24 defeats moved over to run line |
| required to break even or show a profit. | | | | bets lost -26.3 units and the new 10 extra losses |
| It is often suggested by handicappers or others in | | | | against the spread cost an additional -10.5 units. |
| wagering forums to reduce the risk of betting the | | | | Nonetheless look at the difference. |
| Yankees from time to time, instead bet them as | | | | 30.55 + 22 = 52.55 (-) 26.3 + 10.5 = -36.8 |
| large favorites on the run line (-1.5). Here you are | | | | 52.55 - 36.8 = +15.7 units |
| predicting New York wins by two or more runs | | | | The +15.7 units of profit on the RL nearly double's |
| and if they don't, your risk is basically cut in half. | | | | the amount made of betting the Yankees on the |
| The question becomes is this the right strategy? | | | | money line in same exact situations. What looks |
| Broke down last year's championship regular | | | | more enticing to you? |
| season on New York and focused first on them | | | | Another story frequently spoken in sports betting |
| being a -155 or higher money line favorite. Of their | | | | circles is taking the Yankees as -150 or smaller |
| 162 games, the Bombers were placed in this role | | | | favorites because of the "value" you are getting |
| 82 times or just over half their contests played, | | | | on them as compared to higher prices. While this |
| which is rather hefty baggage. | | | | might be true to a point, it's certainly not a fact. |
| For those not familiar, a -200 favorite is a 66.6 | | | | Last year A-Rod and the fellas were -105 to -150 |
| percent choice to win, basically 2-1 and manager | | | | favorites 56 times, just over a third of the |
| Joe Girardi's club was 58-24, 70.7 win percentage | | | | schedule, thus making the argument of "rare" |
| when a -155 or higher betting pick. | | | | opportunity sound ridiculous. In those games, |
| As you might imagine, a number of the 24 | | | | Steinbrenner's crew was 33-23 for +3.3 units of |
| defeats were extremely pricey (five at -285 or | | | | profit. |
| higher) and it really cut into potential profits. For | | | | However, upon digging further, if the sage bettor |
| their 58 wins in this circumstance, Derek Jeter | | | | bet the Pinstripes on the run line in price range of |
| and teammates showed a meager ML profit of | | | | -130 to -150 they would have came away with |
| +7.2 units winning seven out of 10 games as | | | | +5.2 units in spite of 9-8 record or better than |
| decided favorites. | | | | playing New York as "valued" favorite 56 times. |