| The 2008 Cincinnati Reds finished in fifth place in | | | | average, as he gets bad jumps on balls and |
| the NL Central, coming in with a record of 74-88. | | | | doesn't always take the best routes, meaning |
| Their 2009 team will look significantly different | | | | that his speed is nullified. Don't expect much out |
| from the team that opened the 2008 season, as | | | | of him in 2009, as his course in the majors is |
| Ken Griffey Jr. departed during the season in a | | | | pretty much set at this point. |
| trade to the Chicago White Sox, and it appears | | | | RF Jay Bruce - In the two weeks after his call-up |
| that Adam Dunn will most likely not be back. | | | | in 2008, Bruce looked like he had a chance to be |
| Taking their place as the future core of the Reds | | | | the best baseball player who ever lived. While he |
| are OF Jay Bruce, 1B Joey Votto, and SP Edinson | | | | was unable to keep up this ridiculous pace for the |
| Volquez. Volquez probably had the best first year | | | | course of the season, going through a significant |
| out of the three, but Bruce and Votto both have | | | | period of scuffles, Bruce still posted an OPS+ of |
| superstar potential and should begin to show their | | | | 96 in his rookie season while hitting 21 home runs |
| true talent level in 2009. While the talent around | | | | in only 413 ABs. Bruce hit under .300 for the first |
| them is mostly leavue-average, with the addition | | | | time since he was in low-A, and his average of |
| of a few other pieces, the Reds could contend in | | | | .254 was most likely fueled by a BABIP that was |
| the NL Central in a year or two. For 2009, | | | | over 50 points below his lowest BABIP in the |
| though, fans will have to be content with finishing | | | | minors. Defensively, Bruce is probably a touch |
| somewhere in the middle of the pack, possibly a | | | | below-average, but certainly nothing to worry |
| few wins better than 2008. | | | | about in RF, as he also had 8 outfield assists last |
| C Ramon Hernandez - Hernandez has been a solid | | | | season. Look for Bruce to have an OPS |
| offensive catcher over his career, though he | | | | somewhere between .830-.870 in 2009, but don't |
| struggled during his last two seasons with the | | | | be surprised if he breaks out and becomes an |
| Orioles, posting an OPS of .714 in each season. | | | | elite player in his second full season as well. |
| Look for a bit of a bounceback into the mid-.700s | | | | SP Edinson Volquez - Volquez was a revelation in |
| in 2009 with the Reds, as he is capable of hitting | | | | his first full season in the majors last year, posting |
| 12-18 home runs and should post an average | | | | a 3.21 ERA over 196 innings while giving up just |
| around .265. Defensively, Hernandez used to | | | | 167 hits and striking out 206, all at age 24. |
| throw out 30-40% of base-stealers, but this | | | | Volquez features primarily a fastball and changeup, |
| number has dipped into the low-20s in recent | | | | but will mix in a slurve as well that can be quite |
| years, and he no longer can consistently keep | | | | effective. He can overpower hitters at times, as |
| baserunners at bay. He should provide solid | | | | clearly evidenced by his phenomenal strikeout |
| offense for the Reds next season, but don't | | | | numbers. One cause for concern is his walk rate, |
| expect him to be an All-Star. | | | | as he did walk 93 batters over the course of the |
| 1B Joey Votto - Votto had a tremendous first full | | | | season, though as long as he drops his BB/9 from |
| season in the majors, putting up an OPS+ of 124 | | | | 4.5 to somewhere in the mid-3 range, he should |
| while hitting 24 home runs and compiling an OBP | | | | be able to be successful in the long run. In any |
| of .368. Votto is the total package offensively. He | | | | case, Volquez is a tremendous young pitcher, and |
| will hit for average, has good gap power, has | | | | should be a star for the Reds. |
| good home run power, and can work the count | | | | SP Aaron Harang - Harange followed up three |
| effectively. What is there to expect from him | | | | very good seasons in Cincinnati with a |
| going forward? Sometime in the next couple of | | | | below-average 2008, where he posted an ERA of |
| years, Votto will be in the elite class of first | | | | 4.78 while going 6-17. Harang saw his HR/9 nearly |
| basemen. At his peak, he should put up an OPS in | | | | double as his flyball rate increased dramatically, as |
| the mid-.900s consistently, with 35 home runs | | | | well as seeing a small decrease in his K-rate while |
| annually. Defensively, Votto has above-average | | | | his BB-rate increased slightly. So while the HR/9 |
| range for a first baseman, but needs to work on | | | | was concerning, it wasn't like Harang was falling |
| his hands a bit, as well as his throws to second | | | | apart, especially since his BABIP against stayed |
| base. These are minor things for him to work on, | | | | pretty much the same as previous years. So |
| and look for him to build on his 2008 and have a | | | | what does this all mean? Probably that a lot of |
| strong 2009 that shows improvement in all areas | | | | this was pretty fluky and that Harang should |
| of his game. | | | | return to somewhere near his previous production |
| 2B Brandon Phillips - Phillips has always had plenty | | | | in 2009, assuming that his small stint on the DL in |
| of natural talent, but has never seemed to be | | | | 2008 wasn't the result of any major health |
| able to put it completely together, either because | | | | problems we don't know about. |
| of maturity issues or circumstances surrounding | | | | SP Bronson Arroyo - While Arroyo has not |
| him. It certainly appears that he won't reach his | | | | enjoyed the level of success that he saw in his |
| potential at this point, as his line of .262/.312/.442 | | | | first season with the Reds in 2006, his past two |
| is a near replica of his career line. Offensively, | | | | seasons have proven that he is a solid #3 who |
| Phillips has good power and speed, but he lacks | | | | can eat innings and contribute at a league-average |
| baseball instincts or a good approach at the plate, | | | | level or slightly above. While his ERA spiked to |
| as he was successful in only 23 out of 33 stolen | | | | 4.77 in 2008 from 4.23 the year before, his |
| base attempts last season, and had a BB/K ratio | | | | peripherals remained strong, as he struck out 163 |
| of 39/93. Defensively, he is superb, grading out | | | | in 2oo innings while walking 68. His declining K-rate |
| well above-average in almost every metric there | | | | was a concern while he was in Boston, but he |
| is. However, it looks as though he will never reach | | | | seems to have adjusted and now possesses a |
| his offensive ceiling, and Reds fans can expect | | | | servicable ability to strike out batters. Look for |
| more of the same from him next season. | | | | more of the same from Arroyo in 2009, with an |
| 3B Edwin Encarnacion - Encarnacion goes | | | | ERA in the mid-4s and 10-14 wins out of him |
| unnoticed, probably because he plays for the | | | | from the third spot in the Cincinnati rotation. |
| Reds, but he is a very solid third baseman who is | | | | SP Johnny Cueto - Cueto pitched a full season |
| capable both offensively and defensively. Last | | | | with the Reds in 2008 after coming up through |
| season, he hit a career-high 26 home runs while | | | | the Cincinnati farm system. He posted an ERA of |
| posting an OPS+ of 106, just above his career | | | | 4.81 over 174 innings, while giving up 178 hits and |
| average of 103. Encarnacion has solid power and | | | | striking out 158. Cueto has good stuff, featuring a |
| gap power. Encarnacion also saw his BABIP drop | | | | fastball with some tailing action, an improving |
| by nearly 40 points last year, so he still has room | | | | slider, and a changeup that he rarely uses. A |
| to improve, and projects as a player who can | | | | primary place of improvement for Cueto in 2009 |
| post an OPS in the mid-.800s consistently at his | | | | will be his control, as his BB/9 of 3.52 was a bit |
| peak. Look for him to continue to show | | | | above where you would like to see it. He does |
| improvement towards this with the Reds in 2009. | | | | have a very solid future going forward, and |
| SS Alex Gonzalez - While Gonzalez endured a | | | | although he most likely profiles as a solid #3 |
| multitude of knee problems last year that | | | | starter, he could be a #2 guy if he puts it all |
| eventually culminated in microfracture surgery, he | | | | together and learns to command his stuff |
| appears to have the inside track on the shortstop | | | | particularly well. Look for Cueto to be in the |
| job for 2009, partially because the Reds seem | | | | mid-4s with his ERA in 2009 and continue to |
| unlikely to put him on the bench when he's making | | | | improve in his second full season in the bigs. |
| nearly $5.5 million. When healthy, Gonzalez's | | | | SP Micah Owings - Owings spent most of 2007 |
| strength lies in his defense, where he has | | | | and 2008 with the Diamondbacks in the majors, |
| above-average range and phenomenal footwork | | | | but 2009 will be his first stint with the Reds. |
| that allows him to make plays that others simply | | | | Owings had a less-than stellar 2008, posting a 5.93 |
| could not. He possesses a solid and accurate arm, | | | | ERA in 104.1 innings. He profiles as a back-end |
| as well as good hands turning the double play. His | | | | starter who can eat innings and give a team an |
| offense is fairly one-dimensional, as he will hit | | | | ERA in the high-4s with a chance to win some |
| 12-18 home runs in a given year with an average | | | | games. Being in the National League, Owings can |
| around .260, but he simply does not work counts | | | | use his talents at the plate that most pitchers do |
| well, and his career OBP is .295. Look for him to | | | | not possess, as he is a capable hitter who will |
| provide defensive stability, even if his offense | | | | make opposing pitchers work. Look for Owings to |
| leaves something to be desired. | | | | be a capable starter for the Reds in 2009, but he |
| LF Chris Dickerson - Dickerson is going to be in a | | | | certainly isn't going to win any Cy Young awards |
| three-way battle for the LF spot with Jerry | | | | for them. |
| Hairston and Nick Hopper, but we give him the | | | | CL Francisco Cordero - Cordero is a very good |
| edge here due to his impressive stint with the | | | | closer, though he is certainly a step below the |
| Reds last season. Although it was a short sample, | | | | likes of Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, |
| Dickerson put up a line of .304/.413/.608 in 31 | | | | and Mariano Rivera. In 2008, Cordero pitched 70.1 |
| games. While he certainly won't duplicate these | | | | innings in which he gave up 61 hits while striking |
| numbers, he should be good for an OPS in the | | | | out 78. He possesses good stuff and has an |
| high-.700s, which is all the Reds could want out of | | | | aggressive approach to get hitters out, though he |
| him in his first full season in the majors. Look for | | | | can be prone to walks, as he did walk 38 hitters |
| him to provide solid offense and average defense | | | | over the course of the season as well. Cordero |
| for the Reds in 2009. | | | | features primarily the fastball and the slider, |
| CF Willy Taveras - Taveras is not a good | | | | though he will mix in an occasional changeup |
| offensive player. He obviously has speed to burn, | | | | splitter, though it's hard to tell exactly what it is. |
| with 68 steals last season, but when your career | | | | While Cordero has never been able to join the |
| OBP is .331, you need to have something more | | | | elite ranks of closers, he has been fairly |
| than speed going for you. Unfortunately, Taveras | | | | consistent over his career, and is entering his |
| is completely one-dimensional, as his career SLG is | | | | year-33 season, so it is unlikely that there will be |
| only .337, and his OPS+ for his career is 72. In | | | | a substantial dropoff at this point. Expect more of |
| five full season, he has only 80 extra-base hits. | | | | the same out of him in 2009, with an ERA in the |
| These are not numbers that you want out of | | | | low-3s, a K/9 of between 9 and 10, and 30-35 |
| your leadoff hitter, yet he keeps getting chances | | | | saves. |
| because of his speed. Defensively, Taveras is | | | | |